China participates in the great Asian arms race because it has no choice

The increasing militarization of China is a forced response to pressure exerted by the US. In addition, they also want to try to prevent the EU from becoming more militarily involved in the Indo-Pacific region against China.

At the two sessions of the National People's Congress last weekend, China announced that its military budget would increase by 7.2 percent annually. This news has made headlines worldwide.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang's report, submitted to the National People's Congress, says the country's military should "intensify military training and readiness across the board." It also points to "escalating external attempts to suppress and contain China." The country's state media reacted cautiously, stressing that the increase in defense spending was in line with the "single-digit growth pattern" of recent years: 7.1 percent in 2022, 6.8 percent in 2021 and 6.6 percent in 2020.

US military budget still three times as high as China's

Western media took a very different view, with many media outlets mentioning the obligatory warnings of Western analysts and officials that China's actual military spending could be much higher than the announced budget. For example, the British newspaper The Guardian quoted the US Department of Defense as claiming that China's military budget could be up to twice as high. To be sure, these media mention that China's defense spending at $772 billion for the U.S. versus $224 billion for China is dwarfed by that of the U.S. Then, however, it immediately moves on to discussing the size of China's navy and infantry, its "militarization" of the South China Sea, and, of course, repeating warnings from Washington that "China may soon invade Taiwan."

Such warnings from the US are accompanied by a series of deliberate provocations, such as official visits by US politicians to Taiwan, overflights by long-range bombers in the South China Sea, and operations to "preserve freedom of navigation." The US itself has made it a priority to militarize the region and militarily encircle China. But none of this can be found in Western media reports on Beijing's defense spending, although this is directly responsible for the continued growth of China's military budget.

US Indo-Pacific strategy militarizes the region

As a result of the US attempt to contain China, the Asia-Pacific region has now become embroiled in an increasing arms race and military competition. Beijing has no choice but to participate. Washington, under the label of its "Indo-Pacific" strategy, has set in motion a militarization of the region focused on stopping China's rise. To this end, the US has created minilateral blocs directed against China, one of which is Quad – with Australia, India, Japan and the US – and the other is AUCUS, along with Britain and Australia. In addition, the U.S. has successfully pushed the Philippines to expand its U.S. military presence on the island nation. They have also deliberately provoked on the Taiwan issue and retreated from existing commitments to China in order to escalate regional tensions.

The US has also actively pursued the armament of its regional allies, with the most notable example being Japan's pledge to double its military spending and purchase hundreds of cruise missiles from the US. This militarization complements the parallel expansion of sanctions and embargoes aimed at suppressing China's rise in high-end technologies, which the US views as a direct contribution to Beijing's military capabilities. In this sense, the technological and military aspects of the Sino-US rivalry are inextricably linked – and all in the name of maintaining US hegemony in the region.

How is China responding to this growing military encirclement and rivalry? The answer is that it continues to expand and strengthen its military, with the optimism of being able to compete with the United States in the long run. The US military budget remains more than three times that of China's, which should be sobering even for those who call Beijing a "threat." However, this does not mean that China remains incapable, as its resources are concentrated in a region around its own territory, while the US seeks global dominance. For example, when it comes to numbers, China already has a larger navy than the United States and greater shipbuilding capacity.

US forces China to react

The year 2023 will be a year with significantly increased tensions. It didn't start well after the U.S. sparked hysteria over an alleged Chinese spy balloon, continued provocations regarding Taiwan, and revived the lab leak theory surrounding COVID-19. But will China fall for these provocations? This seems unlikely.

One of the main goals of these US-led provocations against China is precisely to force Beijing to respond so that Washington can create instability and thus increase its geopolitical influence over other countries in the region and prevent positive regional integration. That is why China must remain cautious. Since Beijing has realized that it is being encircled by the US, it must defend its crucial national interests, but at the same time it must also play a diplomatic game so as not to worry other countries in the region. China does not want relations with India to deteriorate or the candidates for ASEAN membership such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia or the Philippines to distance themselves.

Beijing also wants to avoid the EU becoming more militarily involved against China, which would be a major strategic success for the US. China strives to remain steadfast, but also to act calmly and prudently. There is too much to lose when faced with hostile US, but standing idly by is not an option. A military rivalry has begun, and it will not just disappear overnight. Beijing must remain strong, but also avoid "rocking the boat too much."

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