China's New Covid Policy - Win or another loss?

China drastically changed its approach to fighting the coronavirus last month. Although official China has not abandoned its dynamic zero-tolerance policy towards COVID-19, the government has lifted almost all restrictive measures associated with this policy. In December, there was an explosion in the number of cases, which sent everyone home again. However, the public health system was not affected by this wave and the Chinese government began announcing measures to gradually open the country to travelers shortly afterwards.

Three years of lockdown

For three years, China had a zero-tolerance policy towards the coronavirus, which basically aimed to keep the number of cases as small as possible. To this end, the Chinese government launched a nationwide vaccination campaign that resulted in over 90 percent of the population being vaccinated and refreshed with Chinese vaccines. The Chinese routinely underwent PCR tests: In order to move freely in public places, one had to carry a current negative PCR test result, which was downloaded to a special program on the smartphone. When entering a shop, pharmacy or office, one had to show the negative test result and scan the QR code of the respective facility - all movements of citizens were monitored to control the spread of the virus.

Entry traffic has been completely frozen, although China eventually relaxed entry requirements for work, study and family reunification. Arrivals had to endure a centralized quarantine lasting several days (initially three weeks, later it was gradually reduced).

This policy has been described as dynamic because the regional COVID-19 control center responded very quickly to the increase in cases during localized coronavirus outbreaks. To this end, local authorities imposed complete lockdowns, which could even be applied in a metropolis of millions like Shanghai in the spring and summer of 2022: The residents remained in their homes, all were PCR tests carried out and the infected were isolated.

This approach has proven effective in practice. From the beginning of the pandemic until December 2022, Chinese health authorities detected only 320,000 cases of infection in a country of 1.4 billion people, meaning that in three years only 0.023 percent of the population was infected. In addition, the official number of fatal cases was 5,200, which is negligible by global standards. In Russia, for example, COVID-19 was diagnosed in 15 percent of the population during this period, 20 percent in Japan, 30 percent in the U.S. and 58 percent in France. The death toll in these countries was disproportionately higher, amounting to tens and hundreds of thousands; in the US, the number was over one million.

China, on the other hand, decided from the beginning of the pandemic to reject peaceful coexistence with the coronavirus and firmly declared war on it. This course worked until November of this year, when large outbreaks of COVID-19 caused by the Omicron strain occurred simultaneously in many regions of the country.

The worsening of the situation in November

Already at the beginning of August, an upward trend became apparent, but it was not until three months later that the virus really became active: In November 2022, the number of COVID-19 cases reported in China increased by 23 percent. In turn, the Chinese government strengthened control of the virus, in line with common practice, leading to a series of protests.

The coronavirus has also broken out at Foxconn, the world's largest plant for assembling iPhones. The company continued to operate under strict preventive restrictions. Thousands of disgruntled workers left the plant and those who remained rioted over disagreements with management over wages and working conditions. The conflict at the factory was eventually resolved, with Foxconn promising to stop allowing "violent incidents." But the biggest protests were yet to come.

At the end of November, a fire broke out in a high-rise building in Urumqi in China's Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region. Residents of the building were quarantined due to an outbreak of COVID-19. The tragedy killed ten people and injured nine others. Unconfirmed reports circulated on social media that the high number of victims was due to the fact that people could not leave their homes quickly because of the lockdown and that firefighters and special vehicles took a long time to reach the place because of the blocked roads. The authorities have denied this information. Nevertheless, the tragedy of Urumqi sparked anti-Covid demonstrations in the major Chinese cities of Shanghai, Nanjing, Chongqing, Wuhan and Beijing. Several hundred people took part in protests in Beijing's Chaoyang district. Participants called on authorities to relax Covid control measures. Some demonstrators carried notes reading "In memory of compatriots killed in Urumqi on November 24."

I should note that such protests are rare in China. The last time the Chinese took to the streets was ten years ago, when they were anti-Japanese because of the territorial dispute between China and Japan over the Diaoyu Islands. The current demonstrations may have come as a surprise to both the government and the protesters themselves. In any case, the one-time rally was relatively peaceful and was not continued.

Whether the anti-Covid protests were the immediate reason for the move away from the zero-tolerance policy is an open question. Nevertheless, about a week after the demonstrations, the Chinese government announced a change of course in the fight against the coronavirus.

Optimization in December

The government declared, among other things, that preventive measures should be optimized, and Chinese media increasingly reported on the relative harmlessness of the Omicron tribe.

On Dec. 7, the Chinese government eased preventive measures and social restrictions to contain the coronavirus across the country. It was decided to establish high-risk zones for the virus "by buildings, apartments, floors and households" and no longer by territorial administrative units, and it was forbidden to block them. Asymptomatic and mildly infected individuals had the choice between self-isolation at home and voluntary central quarantine. The Chinese government has also abolished routine and mandatory PCR testing for people whose work does not pose an increased risk of infection.

The lifting of anti-Covid restrictions came immediately after a surge in cases - followed by an even larger outbreak of the disease. In mid-December, there were very few people on the streets of Beijing: either people stayed in their homes to avoid getting infected, or they were sick and adhered to "home isolation." Even at the daily briefings at the Chinese Foreign Ministry, the number of journalists has roughly halved.

Since the Chinese government has abolished the requirement for regular COVID-19 testing and allowed infected people to stay at home, the true extent of the outbreak can only be guessed. More than half of the people I know in China fell ill in December. At the end of the month, the news portal Guanchage, citing calculations by medical experts, reported that in December, about half of the Chinese capital's residents had contracted COVID-19. Today, however, normal life in Beijing is recovering.

Covid has been abolished, everyone is free. Or not?

On December 26, China's State Committee on Hygiene and Public Health announced that as of January 8, COVID-19 will be classified from Class A high-risk diseases to Class B diseases requiring control measures. To clarify, the former include diseases such as plague and cholera, the latter include SARS, AIDS and viral hepatitis. The Chinese government has also changed the official name of the disease: the "new coronavirus pneumonia" is now called "new coronavirus infection". They explain this with the attenuation of the pathogenicity of the dominant Omykron strain.

In this context, China will simplify entry requirements from 8 January 2023. Beijing also plans to gradually allow overseas travel for Chinese people again. People traveling to China must take a PCR test 48 hours before departure. The negative test result must be attached to the health declaration. It is not necessary to apply for the so-called green health code at Chinese diplomatic missions. Mandatory quarantine and coronavirus testing on arrival will also be abolished.

Apparently, the Chinese government finally decided in December that it can try to peacefully coexist with the coronavirus by focusing on protecting vulnerable sections of the population. The plan is to gradually return international passenger traffic to pre-pandemic levels in 2023. How smoothly China's opening will go, however, is difficult to assess in both the short and medium term. For example, Chinese investors have not yet reacted clearly to the lifting of anti-Covid restrictions. "There is no upward trend in the stock market. However, Chinese economic experts still expect economic growth of up to 8 percent next year.

It should be remembered that on January 22, the Chinese celebrate the New Year according to the lunar calendar and celebrate it with their families. In the run-up to the festival, city dwellers traditionally visit their relatives throughout the country. After a week full of festivities, everyone returns to their place of work or study. Against this background, it remains to be seen whether there will be another wave of illness in China in January and February. In addition, in my opinion, one should not forget that there is no guarantee that a relatively harmless "Omikron" will not mutate further.

The future is uncertain, but China has probably had enough of the pretty strict lockdowns over the past three years. Beijing's vast experience in fighting the pandemic allows him to dare to peacefully coexist with COVID-19.

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