EU prepares economic ultimatum against Russian-Chinese friendship

The West's expectations of Emmanuel Macron and Ursula von der Leyen's visit to Beijing are high. The two leaders are supposed to resolve a whole series of bilateral issues and put pressure on China – because of Russia, of course. But what are the chances that this will succeed?

French President Emmanuel Macron has come to Beijing for a three-day visit. The main goal of the French leader's trip was "the desire to renew diplomatic and economic contacts with the People's Republic of China" after her three-year almost total absence due to the COVID-19 pandemic, BFMTV TV reported.

Shops? Yes and no

However, a review of the visit program written by advisers to the French head of state reveals that he has more important things to do in Beijing. Macron will be accompanied by about 50 important figures of the French business world. One might think that this testifies to the hopes of businessmen for favorable contracts with representatives of the "world factory".

Nevertheless, the publication is sceptical: "Taking into account the tense relations against the background of the Ukraine war, the conclusion of contracts is becoming a rarity. The task of French companies is to remember themselves and confirm their presence on the Chinese market."

To confirm their disbelief in major contracts in the industrial sector, the authors report that China, for example, hardly needs France in the nuclear industry. China is already building a large number of mills in its own construction and will soon surpass France in terms of numbers.

Nor does France have any hopes of cooperation with Beijing in the railway industry. According to the journalists, the French rail vehicle manufacturer Alstom will not stand the competition with the strengthened Chinese producer CRRC and will not win tenders.

If it is not a matter of restoring and further expanding relations, why does Macron need the three-day trip? The newspaper Politico put it most aptly in its headline:

"Macron wants to charm China – after it didn't work out with Putin"

"Dissuade from rapprochement with Russia"

"The failure with Putin" means that despite the West's attempts to influence Beijing, Xi Jinping was not persuaded by Washington or Brussels. And that China's head of state, despite the pressure they expected on the Russian president, including breaking off economic and political relations with Russia, strengthened them on the contrary.

"France hopes to dissuade China's leader from rapprochement with Russian President Vladimir Putin and wants China to play a mediating role in the Ukraine war instead. However, it is unclear what leverage Macron has at his disposal – and the background to his three-day visit is not easy. Europe continues to suffer the consequences of the severance of trade relations with Russia, and geopolitical tension between China and the US, the world's two largest economies, is growing," the Politico authors concluded. "But while hopes for a breakthrough are modest in France, views among other Western politicians are even bleaker." The authors added:

"Taking into account Macron's attempts to play a central role in settling conflicts, such as halting the war in Ukraine or saving the nuclear deal with Iran, the US and other countries have doubts that this trip will yield greater results."

Nevertheless, Washington wishes the French president good luck in meeting with Comrade Xi. Anonymous White House staffers quoted by the newspaper recall with regret Macron's attempts to act as peacemaker and resolve "Putin's conflict with Ukraine just before the invasion over a year ago" and expect that the outcome will not be better this time.

Of course, these employees cannot be described as neutral observers. "Biden's administration has some concerns about France's eventual rapprochement with China at a time when tensions in relations between Washington and Beijing were at their peak in decades," Politico notes.

A woman as a disruptive factor

But why is Macron's visit predicted to fail? "Cherchez la femme!" one would say in France. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will accompany Macron on his trip to China. The Spanish newspaper El Confidencial suspects that the EU politician will hinder rather than support the French head of state.

The EU is trying to strengthen its position on the comprehensive investment agreement negotiated between China and the Union. Beijing demands that this be indeed comprehensive and include trade in dual-use goods. Von der Leyen, on the other hand, claimed in her speech during the EU Commission meeting on March 30 that mainly civilian areas should be developed, while everything that could have to do with the military should be limited as much as possible.

The newspaper believes that this is due to pressure from Washington on the EU leadership. After several months of negotiations with the US, the Netherlands refused to sell its cutting-edge microchip production technologies to China.

Von der Leyen is going to Beijing to show that the EU is getting tougher in its relationship with China and yet expects that access to the Chinese market will not be lost, El Confidencial wrote, implying that this will hardly be possible. The newspaper recalled that before her visit, von der Leyen did not fail to accuse Beijing once again of a "turn to authoritarianism" and human rights violations. China's ambassador to the EU, Fu Cong, responded to her words:

"This speech contained many distortions and misinterpretations of Chinese policy and China's positions."

With such a basis prepared by von der Leyen, it would be at least naïve to believe that China will agree to a de facto economic ultimatum. Probably the EU Commission President decided to accompany Macron precisely because she expects his help that good relations between Macron and Xi will help Beijing agree to an agreement on the EU's terms.

However, this attempt is unlikely to be successful. The editor-in-chief of the magazine Rossiya v globalnoj politike (Russia in Global Politics), Fyodor Lukyanov, told the newspaper Vsglyad:

"The EU has no effective means of exerting pressure on China. In financial terms, relations between Brussels and Beijing are quite close, and all Europe can do is gradually cut the existing ties. This will not benefit Europe, but as the situation with Russia has shown, it does not care about such things."

"Pressure won't work"

What is more important for Europe's representatives – business or politics? Probably both. And, of course, the attempt, led by the US, to continue its efforts to break ties between China and Russia is visible.

One would like to believe that Macron and von der Leyen have some chance of success in this mission. At least that's exactly how some analysts interpret the statement of the Chinese ambassador to the EU. As the New York Times reported, Chinese diplomat Fu said that Beijing's statements of an "infinite friendship" between China and Moscow were nothing but "rhetorical figures," that Beijing does not recognize the affiliation of Crimea and new territories to Russia, and does not support Moscow militarily.

Apparently, the whole world is waiting to know what choice Comrade Xi will make: will he prefer a rapprochement with Russia or the EU? Considering that China always acts on the basis of its own interests, it will probably only listen politely to the EU representatives and accompany them to the exit. Beijing does not submit to any diktat.

As for sanctions that could be imposed "as punishment" by the EU, China has an answer. For example, it could deny the EU the rare earth elements that are critical to modern industry. Lukyanov stated:

"Macron and von der Leyen will not be able to put pressure on China. Beijing is too powerful to serve anyone, let alone the EU. As far as the reports of 'rhetorical figures' are concerned, they could themselves be rhetorical figures. Especially since their authenticity has not been confirmed by China."

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