Launched by the US, detached by China: Iranian-Saudi rivalry is history

This remarkable latest development, initiated by China, eliminates one of the most destabilizing factors for regional security: the Iranian-Saudi rivalry exploited by the US to divide and dominate West Asia.

China's recently released Global Security Initiative (GSI) has just achieved its first success after a trilateral statement was issued last Friday that the resumption of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia had been achieved. Beijing mediated a principle that is one of the most important pillars of GSI in the negotiations on the agreement between Tehran and Riyadh, in which it agreed not to interfere in each other's affairs and to respect the sovereignty of the respective counterpart.

This remarkable latest development, initiated by China, eliminates one of the most destabilizing factors of regional security that has prevailed for decades: the Iranian-Saudi rivalry exploited by the US to divide and dominate West Asia. Washington could still try to sabotage this rapprochement, but it is unlikely to achieve anything in this regard, especially since both Tehran and Riyadh are likely to be aware of this possible intention. Although the US would never admit it publicly, it is immensely angry about this agreement, especially since China brokered this agreement.

Thus, Iran and Saudi Arabia not only join the Sino-Russian alliance, but also drive the scenario of the "petroyuan". The latter could deal the death blow to the petrodollar, thereby accelerating the global systemic transition to multipolarity, albeit complex.

US unipolar hegemony would end up in the dustbin of history much sooner than expected, with serious and far-reaching strategic implications for both itself and the international community. This already declining hegemon would no longer be able to exert the disproportionate influence on currency and financial markets as it currently does, and thus lose one of its strongest hybrid weapons of war, which in turn reduces the likelihood that other states can be destabilized by this means.

Now that we have highlighted the significant geoeconomic implications of this latest development, which could literally change the world in the coming future, it is now time to briefly address the comparatively less important geopolitical implications. To be clear, these are still extremely significant, but there is no doubt that they are overshadowed by the findings discussed in the previous two paragraphs. The most immediate moment is finally a tangible opportunity to end the years-long war in Yemen.

While Iran supports the Houthis and Saudi Arabia is on the side of the UN-recognized Yemeni government, both camps are fighting each other in the midst of what the world's worst humanitarian crisis, according to the UN's World Food Programme. With the top patrons of both warring parties now seeking peace with each other, there is a possibility that they could build on this China-brokered rapprochement to finally end their proxy war in Yemen, saving countless lives.

The challenge, however, will be to meet the legitimate interests of the South Yemeni people, who are striving to restore the country's independence. If Iran and Saudi Arabia decide over their heads – and thus over the heads of UAE allies, then their potential efforts to end this proxy war could inadvertently trigger another. For example, the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which seeks South Yemen's independence within its pre-1990 borders, could oppose any agreement that will result in the Houthis gaining some form of influence, real or supposed, over South Yemen.

It is still too early to speculate what might ultimately develop in this country. But the point is that observers should not rule out the scenario that Iran and Saudi Arabia symbolize their newfound rapprochement by trying to end their proxy war in Yemen. Regardless of what might happen in this regard, it is still a remarkable development that China has successfully convinced these two rivals to put an end to their enmity.

This result speaks to China's rising status as a diplomatic superpower, achieved shortly after Beijing unveiled its 12-step peace plan to end the Ukraine conflict. Just as the scenario of Iran joining forces with Saudi Arabia to end the Yemen war is too premature to speculate in detail, it is equally premature to speculate on the prospects for China's success in ending the proxy war between NATO and Russia. But possible progress on this front cannot be ruled out either.

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