Moldova and Russia: Scenarios of NATO-Led Escalation 

In the midst of the Ukraine war, events in Moldova are a matter of serious concern. Based on currently possible escalation scenarios, Moldova could be drawn into a war with Russia in the near future.

The situation around Moldova could deteriorate further in the near future, given the severe economic crisis in the country and the war in neighboring Ukraine. There are increasing signs that the already tense situation in the region is escalating even further on the backs of the Moldovans and that the former Soviet republic is to be drawn into NATO's proxy war with Russia.

Moldova's Western-oriented President Maia Sandu caused the first major tensions in this regard by linking the conflict over the breakaway and Russian-protected Moldovan region of Transnistria with her country's neutral status and an unconstitutional accession to NATO. Sandu is trying to draw Moldova into the North Atlantic military alliance, contrary to the neutrality enshrined in the constitution and the will of the Moldovan people, who reject NATO accession, and even told the US magazine Politico that they were ready to consider membership in "great alliances".

In addition, Sandu accused Russia of using foreign saboteurs to overthrow her country's leadership, prevent it from joining the European Union and instrumentalize the country for the war against Ukraine. The supposedly uncovered plan of the Russian secret service "to destroy the Republic of Moldova" is said to have been leaked to her by the Ukrainian head of state Vladimir Zelensky. Moscow has denied these accusations as "unfounded."

In addition, representatives of the new, also pro-Western government in Chișinău have recently used much more aggressive rhetoric towards Transnistria, which is obviously also directed against Russia and endangers the status quo of the conflict, which has been frozen since the end of the Moldovan civil war more than 30 years ago. But there is also Ukraine, which has concentrated large troops on the border with Transnistria and could jump Chișinău to the side if fighting flares up again.

Escalation in Transnistria with the participation of Ukraine

This is the current situation, in which Russia and the "Transnistrian Moldovan Republic" it supports - an internationally unrecognized de facto state that extends over a small narrow area on the east bank of the Dniester River and has just under half a million inhabitants - are quasi allies. On the other hand, there are the government in Chișinău, Ukraine and NATO, whose leading power, Washington, basically controls and politically promotes the current developments in Moldova.

In this sense, and against the background of the thesis spread in recent weeks that Moldova's neutrality is no longer up to date, there is already talk within the new Moldovan government of a "demilitarization of the region" and the "withdrawal of Russian troops" stationed there as part of a UN peacekeeping mission. Corresponding statements had been made by the new Prime Minister of Moldova, Dorin Recean.

Chișinău received a "commendation" for his policies from the Americans after consultations at this year's Munich Security Conference. Speaking with Sandu, Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed support for the "security, independence, territorial integrity of Moldova, as well as the reform efforts" of the country's leadership. However, the US is concerned about reports of Russia's "conspiracies" aimed at destabilizing the situation in Moldova, Blinken said. At the same time, of course, "the good efforts that Moldova is making to protect itself from this" are appreciated.

In this respect, developments in Moldova are currently quite worrying. Above all, the situation around Transnistria, which has been extremely tense, not least since the attacks on two transmission masts by unknown persons in April last year. Therefore, with regard to a possible escalation, the following scenario must be considered: In the event of an outbreak of hostilities between Moldovan forces and the Russian or Transnistrian units, troops from Ukraine could cross the border into Transnistria and intervene in the fighting alongside Moldova with the indirect support of NATO.

Kiev is also openly calling on the Moldovan leadership to fight Transnistria and, according to Ukrainian media, is also ready to help Chișinău. If Ukraine invades the breakaway republic, his goal could include taking over an ammunition depot near the Ukrainian border in the north of the region, which contains huge stocks of ammunition dating back to Soviet times. According to experts, around 20,000 tons of ammunition are stored there, which the Ukrainian army desperately needs.

For Russia, an escalation in Transnistria would be fatal from a military point of view, because the Russian army has only one military base in the region and about 1,700 soldiers who nominally serve as peacekeepers there. This is a very small contingent of troops, which also has hardly any heavy weapons.

However, the republic, which has repeatedly promoted accession to the Russian Federation, is home to 200,000 Russian citizens, whose protection is Moscow's top priority. Action against them would destabilize the situation once and for all and lead to a harsh military response by the Russians, which could have the worst consequences for the entire Black Sea region. For this reason, aggression against Transnistria is counterproductive, and it benefits neither Moldova nor Russia.

As a reminder: After the Moldovan civil war in 1992, the so-called "Transnistrian Moldavian Republic" emerged on a narrow strip of land on the eastern bank of the Dniester River, which proclaimed its independence from the central government in Chișinău and has been striving to join Russia ever since. Today it is a de facto Russian exclave with about half a million inhabitants, including 200,000 Russian citizens, which is economically and politically supported by Moscow.

Despite the differences between Chișinău and Tiraspol, the capital of the breakaway republic, the region enjoyed a relatively stable peace for almost 30 years, which until recently enabled relatively active trade between Moldova and Transnistria.

Since the change of power in the "Republic of Moldova" in 2020, when the Western-oriented Maia Sandu took over as head of state, the country's leadership has taken various steps to rekindle the Transnistria conflict. Among other things, it has repeatedly questioned Moldova's neutrality, promoted a controversial rapprochement with NATO, accused Russia of destabilizing the republic, and even called for the demilitarization of Transnistria and the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers.

Romania's influence on Moldovan politics

The Moldovan leadership receives public backing for this approach primarily from the United States. In the background, however, acts - of course with Washington's benevolence - the EU and NATO member Romania, which regards the former Soviet republic as an existential part of its nation and has been exerting influence on it since the end of the USSR. To be precise, Bucharest had already launched the "Movement for the Unification of Romania and Moldova" during the time of perestroika, and now it has decisively determined Chișinău's politics.

It should be emphasized that the so-called "strategic partnership" of the two "sister states" has progressed so far that at least a large part of the Moldovan elite has recently acquired Romanian citizenship. Among others, President Sandu, Prime Minister Dorin Recean and other leading politicians of the country. So you are the guarantor of the interests of Moldova and at the same time a citizen of another state - a rather questionable and probably unique circumstance worldwide.

Many representatives of the aforementioned elite - such as Sandu or Recean - are also obviously considered supporters of the so-called "Unirea" (rum. unification) of Moldova and Romania. The former speaker of the parliament of Moldova, Mihai Ghimpu, even declared in an open letter to the Moldovan head of state and her Romanian counterpart Klaus Iohannis on 2 February that the "danger of war in Bessarabia" (a historical landscape in southeastern Europe, which today largely coincides with the part of the Republic of Moldova west of the Dniester - author's note) is "more than real". and that "the only solution to prevent Russian occupation is unification with Romania."

The opinion of the inhabitants of Moldova, about half of whom are against unification with the neighbouring country, seems to play a rather subordinate role for such actors.

Escalation involving Bucharest?

Russia, for its part, which has called on the new government in Chișinău to be prudent on the Transnistria issue, is well aware of Bucharest's interests in the region and is therefore considering the possibility that Romania could "annex" Moldova with the help of NATO and possibly with the participation of the Ukrainian army and attack Transnistria accordingly.

In a possible scenario of escalation, if fighting breaks out between the Moldovan and Russian or Transnistrian troops, the Romanian armed forces would invade Moldova with the support of NATO (possibly also Ukraine), gain control of the Moldovan territories under the pretext of preventing the "coup plan directed from Russia" and thus herald the annexation of the country by the Romanian state.

Russia's intention to destabilize Moldova is the ongoing mass protests of the opposition in Chișinău. Thousands of people regularly protest against the unprecedented rise in energy and food prices as well as falling living standards. And it hardly looks like the rallies will not take place in the near future.

Sandu explained that Moscow is basing its plans on the Moldovan opposition party "ȘOR", which it describes as a "criminal group". As a result, the state of emergency in the country was extended for another 60 days and Sandu called on the parliament to expand the powers of the Moldovan secret service.

In the meantime, doubts about the alleged conspiracy plan of the Russians and criticism of the government's actions are increasing among the population. Opposition politician and ȘOR deputy Marina Tauber accused the Moldovan authorities of carrying out an "attack on the constitutional order" and an "attack on the principles of democracy". According to Tauber, it is a clear attempt to "seize power in the country", and the law provides for a penalty for this. The representatives of the communist and socialist blocs, on the other hand, called on the government to present evidence of the "preparation of a conspiracy."

Indeed, no one from the Moldovan leadership has yet provided any evidence in this regard. And there is no serious public debate on the subject amid pure speculation. In this matter, however, one must not lose sight of the logic and the goal of Sandu, Recean & Co. They need a pretext to prolong the state of emergency and stir up anti-Russian resentment among the population. This could well create a basis for a possible involvement of Romania.

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