The arrest of Imran Khan will bring the years-long crisis in Pakistan closer to its end

The Pakistani establishment has crossed the opposition's red line as part of its latest power play, effectively challenging the population to resist. And many do just that because they fear losing their country.

The postmodern coup that removed former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan from office in April 2022 – as punishment for his multipolar foreign policy – triggered a cascade of economic, judicial, political and internal security crises. These crises have shaken Pakistan to its core. The U.S.-backed regime, which was installed in place of Khan, refuses to hold free and fair elections in a timely manner. Because it knows that it would lose them after the former prime minister's party – the PTI – won several by-elections last year.

At the same time, the coup regime brutally cracked down on civil society, imprisoning dissidents and censoring the media out of sheer desperation to possibly lose power. But the Pakistani people could not be silenced and forced to accept what Imran Khan calls an "imported government." And citizens continue to protest peacefully to be allowed to exercise their democratic rights. They believe that Pakistan's political crisis can only be solved through elections, only then can the other crises be overcome.

To these people's credit, they have remained faithful to their path, despite the attempted murder of Imran Khan in November 2022, the raid on his home in mid-March 2023 and the ongoing death threats against him from the Minister of the Interior. The red line has always been that Khan should not be arrested on trumped-up charges, as this scenario would pose a threat to his life and would probably also derail any democratic agreement.

This red line was crossed on May 9 after dozens of paramilitaries stormed a courthouse in Islamabad to take Khan away. Former Human Rights Minister Shireen Mazari described the incident as follows:

"It's like being in an occupied country."

In response to Khan's arrest, protests were organized across the country, which are still ongoing at the time of publication of this analysis. However, the regime could use these protests as a pretext to justify a military coup in the worst-case scenario.

The establishment's latest power play is extremely dangerous, as all stakeholders are well aware of the extent to which Pakistani society has become polarized over the past year. The establishment could have responsibly exerted influence on its political proxies, who had taken the place of Kahn after the regime change in April 2022, in order to organize free and fair elections in a timely manner and thus offer the population a pressure valve. This could also have averted the subsequent cascades of crises that peaked on 9 May.

Theoretically, some kind of pragmatic agreement could still have been negotiated between the establishment and the PTI if the latter had returned to power as expected. But such a result no longer seems to be possible. The Pakistani establishment has crossed the opposition's red line as part of its latest power play, effectively challenging the population to resist. And many do just that because they fear losing their country.

According to the demonstrators, a new dark age is dawning in Pakistan, in which it may never be possible to restore the sovereignty that the country is losing more and more every day as a result of the crises. They can't sit back with a clear conscience and just let this happen without knowing deep in their hearts that they've tried everything to prevent it. This explains why these people are literally risking their lives right now to protest against the arrest of Imran Khan and for the democratic future of their country.

At the moment, it seems unlikely that the establishment will back down by releasing Khan and putting pressure on the regime to agree on a date for free and fair elections. But that doesn't mean his strategy can't change. In any case, it is clear that Pakistan's years-long political crisis has come to an end, as only two mutually exclusive outcomes are possible: the chance of genuine democracy or the continuation of a dictatorship.

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