The clock is ticking for the showdown between China and the US

It would be wrong to believe that the patience of the Chinese authorities in affronting the Americans is a sign of weakness. Only one question is important, and that is when and under what conditions will China be willing to offer the Americans a decisive challenge?

The two actors in the world's second most important confrontation are currently on a collision course, thinking only of creating the best possible conditions for themselves to act. In this sense, relations between the US and China resemble the classic preparation of a clash of powers: any peacekeeping measures only mean delaying the war in order to be able to take a firm position. Every summit meeting and every negotiation of government representatives can only be understood in the context of an imminent struggle.

The foreign policy of Beijing and Washington resembles the maneuvers of two armies on the eve of a major battle. The commanders know that they are forced to compete in battle. But they manoeuvre, because each of them has the desire to occupy the most favourable position possible on the hill and to find their counterpart in the valley. They pay attention to the position of the sun and wait for the eyes of the opponent to be blinded. They are waiting for the wind to turn in their favor in international politics.

A compromise between the two states is impossible – China and the United States left this phase of relations behind a decade ago. However, until recently, before the coronavirus pandemic, the confrontation was static. Both powers waited and were not ready for a fight. This is the nature and content of their relationships.

For two or three years, things have changed: the forces of the two states have started to move, and the countdown has begun. How long this manoeuvre will last cannot be said. And above all, it is impossible to predict now when the first shot will be fired from either side. Russia knows from experience how difficult it is to draw the line between "too early" and "too late" in matters of war and peace.

The only thing it would not be unwise to trust is to understand where the invisible line is, the crossing of which would force one side to open fire. Or which constellation of offensive options seems sufficient for Washington or Beijing to begin this decisive step. There is no doubt, however, that no one will give the signal for the "all-clear".

Most likely, the reason for the direct confrontation, of course, will be the island of Taiwan. This Chinese territory is under an autonomous administration which the United States has undertaken to assist by all means at its disposal. Washington provokes China in any way possible and is ready to create risky situations. Beijing, on the other hand, is more reserved, spares its strength and makes observers sigh in frustration when another injurie of the Americans causes only threatening gestures. Just the other day, we saw Beijing hold back with a rough response in August 2022, when the leader of the US House of Representatives paid a provocative visit to Taiwan.

That is why every decisive step taken by China is perceived as a sign of a change in its behavior – at some point, such a powerful state must tire of provocations? In Russia, Beijing's maneuvers are viewed with mixed feelings: many probably even believe that Chinese restraint must be taken as an example.

The recent episode with the brazen migration of a balloon by Chinese meteorologists over American territory suggests that Chinese politics is more complex than it seems. The Chinese government may well be determined and create very painful situations for the US. An example of how sensitive the missed affront was to Washington is the hysterical reaction of the American media and politicians, as well as the spectacle of a balloon hunt with the help of a squadron of American fighter jets.

In other words, China has fulfilled several tasks by sending a meteorological aerostat into US airspace. First, it has shown the world that China is capable of brazen actions and can take unpredictable steps against the most sensitive points of the adversary. For the United States, it is about the system of air defense of its territory, which, according to experts, has developed only mediocre because of the occupation with colonial expeditions. Second, Americans were forced to react nervously and hastily, that is, to "lose face" in a difficult situation. And finally, it was shown that the visit of the US Secretary of State, which had to be postponed because of the "balloon incident", was completely meaningless for China.

However, such behavior can hardly be seen as a transition by China to a new quality in its policy in the context of the conflict with the US. First and foremost, because this policy is already deeply unfriendly and aims to limit America's options for action as much as possible. China does not need to opt for a conflict with the Americans now. This was already happening at the time when Chinese President Xi Jinping firmly rejected any attempts by the US to interfere in the internal affairs of the Middle Kingdom. We remember how Western propaganda assured us a few years ago that a head of state could not rule in China for more than two terms. What ultimately turned out to be fiction, a fantasy that was refuted by the practical actions of the Chinese authorities.

It should be remembered that China is the power that has experienced a direct military confrontation with the Americans in its history of foreign policy. In the Korean War (1950–1953), tens of thousands of Chinese volunteers saved North Korea from defeat and successfully fought the American Expeditionary Force. Russia, for example, lacks such experience – we have not yet had the opportunity to meet the Americans face to face and on a grand scale in battle. To be sure, the policy of reform and opening-up since the mid-1970's has given the United States much confidence in its ability to "manage" China. Even now, many in Washington believe that the Chinese Communist Party is interested in peace with the US in order to maintain economic growth in the country.

But much, if not all, has changed in the last decade. According to China experts, Xi Jinping's seizure of power was a turning point, China's decision for independence, and global opposition to US interests. During the three-year coronavirus pandemic, Chinese authorities have managed to seriously consolidate society within the country. Permanent lockdowns and quarantines have caused severe damage to the economy. At the same time, however, the scope for mobilization grew. And it became clear how many people in China associate their future with US-led globalization. While the pandemic has created an economic problem for China, the willingness to confront the United States now looks markedly different politically.

 The US response to the "balloon incident" was negotiations with Japan on the stationing of intermediate-range missiles, cruise missiles and hypersonic long-range weapons on its territory. With this decision, all the positive results of the summit between the US President and the Chinese head of state in Bali in November 2022, regarding peace between the two states, will be nullified. There is open talk in Washington that the planned deployment is a "defensive measure against China," which, as the joke goes, has placed its territory too close to US military bases.

In response, the Chinese side has asserted its right to a "strategic response" to counter the threat. The "balloon incident" or the deployment of new US weapons in close proximity to the Chinese coast are not signs of a change in relations between these countries. They have been adversaries for a long time. But both events are also a sign of another maneuver by their forces towards this invisible line, after which Washington and Beijing are left with nothing but fighting. And although Russia is least interested in seeing this war break out, our ability to seriously influence the speed of its progress is very limited.