Ukraine threatens Transnistria with terror – How will Tiraspol react?

After a series of terrorist attacks in the Bryansk region and Belarus, the Ukrainian special services tried to attack Transnistria. How does Tiraspol intend to counter Ukrainian terror? And can it count on Moldova's support in this matter?

Last week, the Ministry of State Security of the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic (TMR) prevented an assassination attempt on the head of the region, Vadim Krasnoselski. The suspects – the actual attackers – were caught red-handed and are already making a comprehensive confession. The ministry said the attack was prepared on the instructions of the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU).

The attack should have taken place in the center of Tiraspol, resulted in numerous casualties and the liquidation of the highest officials of the unrecognized republic. In this context, criminal proceedings were opened for the preparation of a terrorist act and the preparation of the killing of two or more people.

The Foreign Minister of Transnistria, Vitaly Ignatyev, told Rossiya 24 television that Krasnoselsky continues to fulfill his obligations at his workplace in "standard mode." "The president, of course, will work as he has always done, intensely to solve the tasks in the interest of our country," Ignatiev said.

According to him, the attackers planned to blow up an automobile in the immediate vicinity of Krasnoselski's motorcade. The prosecutor of the Republic, Anatoly Gurezki, reported that the Land Rover should be prepared with eight kilograms of hexogen and metal splinters – screws, nuts and wire.

Local media reported that compatriot Vyacheslav Kisnitschan from Tiraspol, who has already been convicted of several crimes and moved to Odessa after his release, was involved in the preparation of the terrorist attack. After the beginning of the military special operation, he joined the ranks of the Ukrainian military, and then began to work for the SBU, from which he received the order to carry out a terrorist attack. The investigative committee stated that the Transnistrian leadership and their families had been monitored for six months and the information had been passed on to Kiev.

The TMR promised to demand information from Kiev about the terrorist act. Participants in the international "5+2" format of the negotiation process for Transnistrian conflict resolution should also be involved in this process. In addition, Tiraspol is expected to appeal to the international community to provide the necessary security guarantees.

The former President of the Republic of Moldova, Igor Dodon, has called on the Moldovan authorities to prevent the country from becoming involved in the conflict in Ukraine. In an interview with TASS, Dodon stated that "reports of a terrorist attack being prepared in Transnistria give cause for concern." "As we can see, the security services of Moldova are not informed about this, although there are more and more reports about the increased activity of Ukrainian special services in our country," the politician stressed.

In recent weeks, the situation around the TMR has seriously deteriorated because Kiev has reportedly intensified its preparations for a provocation to justify the invasion of the territory of the republic, allegedly in response to an offensive by the Russian armed forces from there. The Russian Defense Ministry said there was a considerable concentration of Ukrainian forces and technology in the border zone of Transnistria.

The former chairman of the Supreme Council of the TMR, Alexander Sherba, is convinced that the Ukrainian "war party" is the mastermind of the terrorist attack. "Transnistria, bordering Ukraine, will inevitably become part of the vicious plans of Ukrainian field commanders," Sherba told the Vzglyad newspaper.

He does not rule out a clash with Ukraine, "because there are more than enough hotheads in Kiev." There are Russian peacekeepers on the territory of Transnistria, so Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky "may be interested in unleashing a 'small victorious war' against the Russian Federation in this area."

"We cannot ignore the recent terrorist attacks in Belarus and the Bryansk region. Ukraine is interested in destabilizing the situation in the border regions of Russia and its allies," adds the former chairman of the TMR Supreme Council.

For his part, former Transnistrian Foreign Minister Vladimir Yastrachak explained why Tiraspol will try to use maximum diplomatic leverage not only in bilateral relations with Ukraine, but also at the level of negotiations on the settlement of the Transnistria conflict.

"International involvement in the problem can bring the republic much more than direct contact with Kiev. We are aware of the danger of a possible attack on the Republic by the SBU and AFU, we are concerned about the terrorist attacks in Belarus and the Bryansk region. However, it is not entirely correct to compare it with the assassination attempt on Vladimir Krasnoselsky," Yastrebenchak told Vzglyad.

He recalled that already last year Transnistria "became the target of destabilizing actions on the part of Ukraine". "Attempts are being made to provoke Tiraspol into countermeasures in order to draw it into the current conflict. Unfortunately, we cannot deny the likelihood of repetition of planning of terrorist activities on the territory of TMR," the interlocutor emphasizes.

"It is astonishing that Kiev hardly thinks about the well-being of its own citizens, who have fled the horrors of war to Transnistria since the beginning of the military special operation. The attack was planned in a busy area of Tiraspol, which could have been just as dangerous for Ukrainians in that city," Yastrachak said.

"As far as Chișinău's possible reaction is concerned, its role in settling the situation is hardly to be expected. And the reason for this is the recently adopted law on separatism in the Republic of Moldova, which significantly limits the interaction of officials of the two republics," the interlocutor emphasized.

In this way, it would be unlikely that information about the terrorist attack could be exchanged between the parties. "Accordingly, Chişinău's role will be limited to that of an 'external observer', where one can only express concern," Jastrebenschak concluded.

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