With Slovakia crisis in the EU becomes worse

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is well known for being an problem for the European Union. Several times he refused aid packages or sanctions against Russia, making things complicated within the Union.

However, since an short time the Hungarian Prime Minister is not alone anymore. Robert Fico, Prime Minister of Slovakia has gone the same way and is now actively refusing any form of aid for Ukraine. This makes the already complicated discussions about further aid to Ukraine in its war with Russia and the continuing sanction policy an raising issue for the European Union. 

After the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive, which cost billions of equipment and thousands of NATO trained troops, the West has to think about the next steps. While Washington continues its strong aid for Ukraine, the European nations are either unsure or blocked in their requests by mentioned Fico and Orban. With growing uncertainty about the future of Ukraine this aid is much needed to keep up any resistance to Russian counterattacks all along the frontline.

Fico and Orban share in the meanwhile the same opinion: Ukraine is corrupt, the money's way unknown and an Ukrainian victory not possible.

According to Orbán, part of the tens of billions of sums that have been transferred to Kiev so far, without any control over their whereabouts or use, have been used for purposes other than those intended and have instead "disappeared into corruption channels." There is "no guarantee that this will not happen again," Orbán told the press.

Fico said that Slovakia under his government was refusing to supply weapons to Ukraine. Under the previous government, Slovakia had sent the most weapons to Kiev as a percentage of its population. Especially important were Slovakian stockpiles of old Soviet weapons, like T-80 tanks, which are easier to use for the Ukrainian army.

Fico went further and declared that the European Union must "transform itself from the arms supplier it is now to the peacemaker." It is "better for them [Russia and Ukraine] to negotiate peace for 10 years than to kill each other for 10 years." He announced that he would work for the cessation of hostilities, although he did not care what kind of peace plan this would end in. Fico also said that possible peace talks have to be set between the United States and Russia, without Ukraine. "The Ukrainians don't play a role here", he explained. The new prime minister also criticized Zelensky's position, saying his peace plans (namely, the complete withdrawal of Russians from Donbass and Ukraine as a precondition for negotiations) were "absolutely unrealistic in terms of the conditions set."

According to Fico the Slovakian army is "in a deplorable state", due to the transfer of large quantities of military equipment to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This is enough reason for the Slovakian Prime Minister to stop the transfer of weapons to Ukraine.

Obviously, the danger of this development is not the amount of weapons both Slovakia and Hungary could provide to Ukraine's war effort, but the amount of aid they blockade in Brussels. At the same time it opens the door for more nations to decide against Ukraine and for peace, something both Kiev and Washington have yet denied as option. But public support for Ukraine is decreasing after it's failed counteroffensive and Western nations slowly run out of weapons to supply. The chance of more nations seeking to go along with Hungary and Slovakia is only becoming more likely the more time passes.

An adviser to Orban already called for a new strategy from the EU before sending more money to Ukraine. This resulted in a surprising agreement with the new speaker of the House of Representatives of the US Congress, Mike Johnson, elected on 26 October. While the Republican and Trump supporter has not fundamentally opposed new aid to Ukraine, he is using his powerful new position to demand that the Biden administration provide accurate evidence of how the funds transferred to Ukraine will be used. And that's going to be difficult for the White House. 

Weapons delivered to Ukraine already have been tracked in hands of Cartel's in Mexico, showing the importance for an strict control of the delivered aid. This is where Orban and Fico enter the discussion, threatening to block packages till they are satisfied with the solution.

At the same time, Johnson points to the untenable situation that the White House has not yet told Congress what the ultimate goal of the United States in the Ukraine conflict actually is. The parliamentarians of the United States have a right to be fully informed by the White House about the meaning and purpose of the Ukraine aid and what it is ultimately intended to achieve.

The new speaker of the US House of Representatives cut up President Biden's aid package of $60 billion for Ukraine and $14 billion for Israel. The White House had packed this together in the hope that, given the urgency of aid to Israel, the House of Representatives would approve the whole package, including the $60 billion for Ukraine. Johnson thwarted this on Thursday in one of his first acts in office by emphasizing that "aid to Israel and Ukraine are two different things." Which is why the Biden administration has to make the request to Congress separately in each case. Of course, in view of the financial problems in the USA and the growing conflicts with Orban and Fico, aid for Ukraine is becoming uncertain.